greenswitch – climate change and cleantech solutions

Fabled passage opened up for oil tankers?

Quite handy, since the North Pole is melting, we don’t need Venezuela or Iraq any more. We can ship in some Russian oil where there used to be solid ice.

The shrinking Arctic icecap may open a fabled passage for ships between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans within a decade, transforming an icy graveyard into a short-cut trade route. Ship owners may be among the few to benefit from global warming in the extreme north, where the giant thaw is threatening traditional habitats for indigenous peoples and wildlife ranging from polar bears to caribou.

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U.N. STUDIES PROJECT that the Arctic may be free of ice in summertime by 2080. The polar passage, clogged by ice throughout seafaring history, may come to challenge the Panama and Suez canals.

“In the next 10 years I believe we will solve the problems of round-the-year goods transport through the Northern Sea Route,” said ander Medvedev, general director of Russia’s Murmansk Shipping Company.

Arab world silently watching?

Guardian Unlimited | The Guardian | When will we resist? ..

And yet, there is only long silence followed by a few vague bleats of polite demurral in response. Millions of people will be affected, yet America contemptuously plans for their future without consulting them. Do we deserve such racist derision?

This is not only unacceptable: it is impossible to believe. How can a region of almost 300 million Arabs wait passively for the blows to fall without attempting a collective roar of resistance? Has the Arab will completely dissolved? Even a prisoner about to be executed usually has some last words to pronounce. Why is there now no last testimonial to an era of history, to a civilisation about to be crushed and transformed utterly, to a society that, despite its drawbacks and weaknesses, nevertheless goes on functioning?

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There is a wonderful expression that very precisely and ironically catches our unacceptable helplessness, our passivity and inability to help ourselves now when our strength is most needed. The expression is: will the last person to leave please turn out the lights? We are that close to a kind of upheaval that will leave very little standing and perilously little left even to record, except for the last injunction that begs for extinction.

Hasn’t the time come for us collectively to demand and formulate a genuinely Arab alternative to the wreckage about to engulf our world? This is not only a trivial matter of regime change, although God knows that we can do with quite a bit of that. Surely it can’t be a return to Oslo, another offer to Israel to please accept our existence and let us live in peace, another cringing, crawling, inaudible plea for mercy? Will no one come out into the light of day to express a vision for our future that isn’t based on a script written by Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz, those two symbols of vacant power and overweening arrogance? I hope someone is listening.

Hungry lions hunt men

BBC NEWS | Africa | Drought drives on Malawi’s killer lions Wildlife officials believe the lions went astray from Kasungu National Park and Nkhota Kota Game Reserve following the theft of protective wire fences by local residents.

They also believe the beasts had run out of food in both the park and the game reserve since the current drought has made grazing grass scarce, forcing small animals like deer and gazelles – the lions’ natural prey – to migrate further afield.

The lions’ alternative is to hunt humans and their docile livestock.

The Inconstant Sun

check out this NASA piece. not an easy read but worth the effort.

The Inconstant Sun The intensity of the Sun varies along with the 11-year sunspot cycle. When sunspots are numerous the solar constant is high (about 1367 W/m2); when sunspots are scarce the value is low (about 1365 W/m2). Eleven years isn’t the only “beat,” however. The solar constant can fluctuate by ~0.1% over days and weeks as sunspots grow and dissipate. The solar constant also drifts by 0.2% to 0.6% over many centuries, according to scientists who study tree rings.

These small changes can affect Earth in a big way. For example, between 1645 and 1715 (a period astronomers call the “Maunder Minimum”) the sunspot cycle stopped; the face of the Sun was nearly blank for 70 years. At the same time Europe was hit by an extraordinary cold spell: the Thames River in London froze, glaciers advanced in the Alps, and northern sea ice increased. An earlier centuries-long surge in solar activity (inferred from studies of tree rings) had the opposite effect: Vikings were able to settle the thawed-out coast of Greenland in the 980s, and even grow enough wheat there to export the surplus to Scandinavia.

Germany still Wind-Weltmeister

Planet Ark : German 2002 wind power market up 22 pct The number of installed wind turbines in Germany, the world largest wind power market, rose 22 percent in 2002, German wind power association Bundesverband Windenergie (BWE) said on its website this week.

In total, Germany installed wind turbines generating 3,247 megawatts last year, up from 2,659 megawatts in 2001. Accumulated wind energy capacity in Germany totalled around 12,001 megawatts by the end of 2002.

Germany is by far the largest wind power market ahead of the United States and Spain. Wind energy is a fast growing power sector worldwide as countries try to bring down green house gas emissions, which scientists say cause global warming.

Annual sales in the German wind energy sector reached 3.5 billion euros ($3.75 billion) in 2002, the BWE said

Future of the Hydrogen Economy

Check these two papers, released by the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI)

NDOL: PPI Examines the Future of the Hydrogen Economy Continuing its efforts to assume a leadership role in this area, today the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) released two papers offering constructive means by which public policy can drive the nation toward a new hydrogen-based, energy future that would improve national security, boost our economy, and reduce global warming. The first paper takes a broad look at how the federal government can encourage partnerships to explore the potential for hydrogen-fuel use across the U.S. economy, while the second specifically examines the impact hydrogen and fuel-cell use could have on our transportation systems.

US: “Germany and France ‘old Europe’ — a problem.”

I wonder if Bush’s “you’re either with us or against us” is still valid — if so, Germany and France will have, umm, a problem. At least Donald Rumsfeld thinks that way. France and Germany — the ultimate Iraq war nay sayers — challenge the US. This made Rumsfeld comment: “The centre of gravity is shifting to the east [in Europe]“. Where to? Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania or what?

In Germany this comment has aroused lots of attention: Spiegel Online shows an interesting polical map, which identifies war endorsing countries in Europe (such as UK, Poland and Italy, Berlusoni is George’s best buddy but quite isolated in the rest of Europe), opponents (mainly Germany and France, Turkey) and undecided countries (Spain).

- Rumsfeld tries to divide Europe into “good and bad” guys; and only he knows how to measure this. This could actually force Europeans to find a common strategy, a strong voice, singing the same song.

- Never attack national pride: Especially France’s national pride “Grande Nation” is hurt. This will unite Germany and France and isolate the UK even more. Blair tries to keep the bridge to the US but his bridge to the mainland may burn down.

- More and more politicians believe the US are on a ‘neo colonialism trip’.

- There are worries voiced that the US will try to isolate Germany and France as countries, which slow down a possible Iraq war. The US hopes to put pressure on France and Germany. Foreign minister Joschka Fischer is frantically working on a strategy to slow down the process. Germany will be heading the UNO security council from early February — an interesting coincidence.

• English translation of German source mentioned above using FreeTranslation.com

AM – 23/1/2003: Rumsfeld dismisses France and Germany as old Europe

DONALD RUMSFELD: You’re thinking of Europe as Germany and France. I don’t. I think that’s old Europe.

If you look at the entire NATO Europe today, the centre of gravity is shifting to the east and there are a lot of new members and if you just take the list of all the members of NATO and all those that have been invited in recently, what is it twenty-six, something like that, you look at vast numbers of other countries in Europe, they’re not with France and Germany on this, they’re with the United States.

JOHN SHOVELAN: In an example of the Franco-German opposition, NATO has not approved a formal request by the US Government for logistical support in the event of war with Iraq.

DONALD RUMSFELD: You’re right. Germany has been a problem and France has been a problem.

“If the Americans would stop lying about us, we would stop telling the truth about them.”

EU Development Commissioner Poul Nielson in GMO row with US, Reuters, 20 Jan 03; a little on biotech issues US vs. Europe. follow the link for more info.

Forbes.com: EU’s Nielson blasts U.S. “lies” in GM food row On January 9, Zoellick called the European view “Luddite”. He said he found it immoral that Africans were not supplied with food because people had invented fears about biotechnology.

He also said he favoured bringing a World Trade Organisation case against the EU for blocking imports of U.S. GM crops.

Nielson said Zoellick had gone too far.

“This is a strange discussion. Very strange,” Nielson told reporters. “We are approaching a point where I would be tempted to say I would be proposing a deal to the Americans which would create a more normal situation.

“The deal would be this: if the Americans would stop lying about us, we would stop telling the truth about them. This is a proposal for normalising the discussion.”

It was time for a more civilised exchange of views, he said.

Oil is oil is oil is oil

(and most of it from Saudi Arabia. We’re hooked — and screwed)

TCS: Enviro-Sci – Oil Econ 101 Oil Is Oil

I teach economics in high school. Here is a good question for an introductory course:

If the United States currently satisfies 10 percent of its demand for oil with imports from Saudi Arabia, by what percentage must the U.S. reduce its consumption in order to be 100 percent independent of Saudi oil?

If you answer “10 percent,” you get an F. If we reduce oil consumption by 10 percent, then we will not cut 100 percent of our imports from Saudi Arabia. We cannot arrange to consume only American oil and no Saudi oil. Oil is oil. If we reduce demand by 10 percent, we probably will reduce our demand for Saudi oil by 10 percent, not by 100 percent.

(Actually, oil is not exactly the same everywhere. Saudi oil is somewhat cheaper to extract and refine than other oil. What this means is that if we reduce our demand for oil, the impact is likely to be felt somewhat more on other oil, and somewhat less on Saudi oil. Lowering our demand by 10 percent might not lower Saudi oil exports much at all. But we can leave that aside for now. Just keep in mind that oil is oil.)

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I have received emails suggesting that I should switch brands of gasoline to a company that supposedly does not use Saudi oil. But if we all did that, then the brand that we switched to would run out of non-Saudi oil and have to start using Saudi oil.

The correct answer to the question of how much the United States would have to reduced oil consumption in order to drive our demand for Saudi oil to zero is 100 percent. Only if we stop using oil altogether can we be sure that we are not contributing to the demand for Saudi oil. Oil is oil, so that any demand for oil creates demand for Saudi oil

Japan: Mass production of hydrogen soon?

Well, the Oilies certainly wouldn’t like this one…But maybe then the world could be a safer place?! Japan is also very dependent on foreign oil and natural gas — no wonder their renewable energy development labs are operating on full speed as opposed to the US war machine

Daily Yomiuri On-Line The Environment Ministry will begin testing a method for mass-producing hydrogen without creating carbon dioxide to meet the fuel needs of hydrogen fuel cells, government officials said.

“We’d like to come up with a technology that’s sure to reduce carbon dioxide,” the ministry official said. The ministry plans to produce hydrogen using electrolysis technology at an offshore wind-power generation facility next fiscal year.

As a measure to tackle global warming, the government hopes to increase the number of fuel-cell vehicles to 50,000 by 2010, and to boost the level of power generated by fuel cells to 2.1 million kilowatts.

At the moment the most realistic method of mass-producing hydrogen is extracting methane from gasoline, but the process creates carbon dioxide.

Car wars

also check out Detroit Project.

Guardian Unlimited | The Guardian | Car wars Car dependence is a global public health issue of which gasoline wars are only one facet. Every day about 3,000 people die and 30,000 people are seriously injured on the world’s roads in traffic crashes. More than 85% of the deaths are in low and middle-income countries, with pedestrians, cyclists and bus passengers bearing most of the burden. Most of the victims will never own a car, and many are children.

By 2020, road crashes will have moved from ninth to third place in the world ranking of the burden of disease and injury, and will be in second place in developing countries. That we accept this carnage as the collateral damage in a car-based transport system indicates the strength and pervasiveness of car dependency. Moreover, car travel has reduced our walking. One-quarter of all car journeys are less than two miles. A 3km walk uses up about half the energy in a small bar of chocolate. The same distance by car expends 10 times as much energy but from the wrong source. We can make chocolate but oil reserves are finite.

Fatherland, oh stand

German chancellor Schröder won his general election last year in September with the slogan “No war in Irak with us”, now he has to deliver. Hope he’ll keep this integrity to his voters. There’s increasing pressure from the US but I hope Scroeder will make his point — it feels good being a war party pooper — especially as a German.

RPT-UPDATE – German anti-war view extends to U.N. vote-Schroeder Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said on Saturday Germany’s refusal to take part in a war against Iraq would be reflected in how the country votes in the U.N. Security Council on any resolution seeking war authorisation.

In the clearest signal to date from Schroeder that Germany might vote against a war or abstain, the chancellor linked his opposition to German support for a war with how the country votes in the Security Council, where it holds a non-veto seat.

“We will not take part in a military intervention in Iraq, and that is exactly how our voting behaviour will be in all international bodies, including the United Nations,” Schroeder said in a campaign speech in the run-up to an election next month in a German state.

Black gold rush

Here comes another “It’s about oil” article — really, it’s a no-brainer, right? I get a little tired of these articles; not many new twists but since Robert Fisk is an outstandig journalist, follow his words; well informed article.

IndependentThe world went to war 88 years ago because an archduke was assassinated in Sarajevo. The world went to war 63 years ago because a Nazi dictator invaded Poland. But for 11 empty warheads? Give me oil any day. Even the old men sitting around the feast of mutton and rice would agree with that.

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The US Department of Energy announced at the beginning of this month that by 2025, US oil imports will account for perhaps 70 per cent of total US domestic demand. (It was 55 per cent two years ago.) As Michael Renner of the Worldwatch Institute put it bleakly this week, “US oil deposits are increasingly depleted, and many other non-Opec fields are beginning to run dry. The bulk of future supplies will have to come from the Gulf region.” No wonder the whole Bush energy policy is based on the increasing consumption of oil. Some 70 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves are in the Middle East. And this forthcoming war isn’t about oil?

Take a look at the statistics on the ratio of reserve to oil production – the number of years that reserves of oil will last at current production rates – compiled by Jeremy Rifkin in Hydrogen Economy. In the US, where more than 60 per cent of the recoverable oil has already been produced, the ratio is just 10 years, as it is in Norway. In Canada, it is 8:1. In Iran, it is 53:1, in Saudi Arabia 55:1, in the United Arab Emirates 75:1. In Kuwait, it’s 116:1. But in Iraq, it’s 526:1. And this forthcoming war isn’t about oil?

Talk about oil, not environment

So far, there has been official silence on the possible environmental and social implications of an invasion of Iraq. The following article explains in detail what happened in 1991.

Guardian Unlimited Observer | Special reports | The environmental damage of war in Iraq During the 1991 war devastating damage was done to the oil industry in Kuwait. Iraqi forces destroyed more than seven hundred oil wells in Kuwait, spilling sixty million barrels of oil. Over ten million cubic metres of soil was still contaminated as late as 1998. A major groundwater aquifer, two fifths of Kuwait’s entire freshwater reserve, remains contaminated to this day.

Ten million barrels or oil were released into the Gulf, affecting coastline along 1500km and costing more than $700 million to clean up. During the nine months that the wells burned, average air temperatures fell by 10 degrees C as a result of reduced light from the sun. The costs of environmental damage were estimated at $40 billion. Estimates of the numbers likely to die as a result of the air pollution effects were put at about a thousand. Since Iraq has the second largest proven oil reserves of any nation on earth, the potential environmental damage caused by destruction of oil facilities during a new war must be enormous.

Other environmental effects of the 1991 Gulf War included destruction of sewage treatment plants in Kuwait, resulting in the discharge of over 50,000 cubic metres of raw sewage every day into Kuwait Bay.

It’s the end of the world as we know it…

Boston.com / Press Releases / Ascribe / End of World Has Already Begun, University of Washington Scientists Say in Book ‘The Life and Death of Planet Earth’ In its 4.5 billion years, Earth has evolved from its hot, violent birth to the celebrated watery blue planet that stands out in pictures from space. But in a new book, two noted University of Washington astrobiologists say the planet already has begun the long process of devolving into a burned-out cinder, eventually to be swallowed by the sun.

By their reckoning, Earth’s ”day in the sun” has reached 4:30 a.m., corresponding to its 4.5 billion-year age. By 5 a.m., the 1 billion-year reign of animals and plants will come to an end. At 8 a.m. the oceans will vaporize. At noon – after 12 billion years – the ever-expanding sun, transformed into a red giant, will engulf the planet, melting away any evidence it ever existed and sending molecules and atoms that once were Earth floating off into space.

Vonnegut at 80: Bush a story teller

Kurt Vonnegut at 80, has still some sharp knives in his drawer. Read this interview in Alternet.

AlterNet: Vonnegut at 80 You’ve talked about how the Bush Administration seems driven by revenge.

It’s a story to tell. He’s in the same business I’m in. He’s telling stories. It turns out this is the simplest of all stories to tell. I mean, I want to hold attention when I write something. What he wants to be is interesting. And revenge is interesting. I’ve said there are two radical ideas that have been introduced into human thought. One of them is that energy and matter are pretty much the same sort of stuff. That’s Einstein. The other is that revenge is a bad idea. It’s an enormously popular idea but, of course, Jesus came along with the radical idea of forgiveness. That was radical. If you’re insulted, you have to square accounts. So this invention by Jesus is as radical as Einstein’s.

Who’s the biggest Threat to peace? Guess who…

Recent Time Magazine poll. For some reason, they were foolish enough to include the US in the list of dangerous countries. And guess what: the online polling currently has the United States leading at 76.1%, way out ahead of the others. Total votes so far: 97895.

TIMEeurope.com: Poll — The Biggest Threat To Peace The Biggest Threat To Peace

Which country really poses the greatst danger to world peace in 2003? TIME asks for readers’ views

Will Canada going to be dragged down by American neighbour?

As already commented on, Canada really has to think hard which route to go: Downhill with the US or alternative routes with Europe and Asia (environmental standards, lumber, gmo, etc.).

Welcome to The PMA OnLine Power Report Canada faces enormous risks to its sovereignty over energy, the environment and the economy if it joins the United States in a continental energy policy, local press reported Friday.

Doing so “would get rid of the last vestiges of national sovereignty around protection of our energy security and heritage, ” said Anil Naidoo, energy campaigner at the Council of Canadians, an Ottawa-based nationalist citizens’ watchdog group.

He was responding to a report by the newspaper Toronto Star on a suggestion by some Canadian government officials that Canada should take steps to eliminate regulations that would be ” impediments” to an integrated North American energy policy.

Liar, liar, pants on fire..

Skeptical Environmentalist meets skeptical committee

WRI Welcomes Decision Rebuking “The Skeptical Environmentalist” The World Resources Institute (WRI) today commented on the decision by a committee of Danish scientists which ruled that Bjorn Lomborg’s book The Skeptical Environmentalist is scientifically dishonest.

“Environmental challenges are complex and real, and we need an accurate assessment of those challenges if we are to find workable global solutions,” said Dr. Allen Hammond, vice president for innovation of the World Resources Institute. “This finding affirms that need.”

Will Saddam torch his own oil wells if necessary?

Well informed source, follow the link for more details.

Business – Calgary Herald – canada.com .. A report by the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) noted recently that a second Gulf War would likely be swift and lead to Saddam’s defeat, but Iraq’s urban warfare strategy “could include deliberate efforts to burn oilfields and create water barriers.”

Iraq produces up to 2.8 million barrels per day, although its petroleum industry has been hampered for a dozen years by international sanctions imposed after its invasion of Kuwait.

Well fires could however cause major problems, restricting the ability of soldiers to move through the country and stoking energy prices around the world.

“Iraq’s southern oilfields are between the U.S. military and Baghdad and the presumption is that with an army coming, the fields are in harm’s way,” says Michael Lynch, an energy expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Centre for International Studies.