Archive for May, 2007
May 31, 2007 at 7:09 am
· Filed under Fuel Cells
China has a serious problem reducing CO2. Chinese are obviously catching up to western lifestyle — shall we really not allow them to have big fridges, air conditioner and cars? I think that´s impossible. So here´s a current snapshot of China´s automobile situation. With a population of 1.1 million there are many more cars to be sold — hopefully soon the “China car” — as the fuell cell industry hopes that China will jump to fuell cell based cars and thus make the production of fuel cells even over here financially viable right away.
Green Car Congress: In 2006, China’s vehicle output and sales volume reached 7.28 million and 7.215 million units, respectively, up by 27.3% and 25.1% year-on-year. This made China the world’s third country to pass the 7-million unit threshold, the others being the US and Japan.
Passenger vehicle sales reached 5.176 million units, up by 30% year-on-year. Total sales included 3.829 million standard passenger vehicles (cars), up by 36.9% year-on-year; 238,000 SUVs, up by 21.2% year-on-year; and 191,000 MPVs were sold, up by 22.6% year-on-year.
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May 30, 2007 at 9:27 am
· Filed under Climate Change
RealClimate – Climate science from climate scientists – explains why global climate models do not give a realistic description of the local climate. This article has already generated over 80 comments — which means there is lots of room for discussions.
RealClimate: Yet, whereas the global climate models (GCMs) tend to describe the global climate statistics reasonably well, they do not provide a representative description of the local climate. Regional climate models (RCMs) do a better job at representing climate on a smaller scale, but their spatial resolution is still fairly coarse compared to how the local climate may vary spatially in regions with complex terrain. This fact is not a general flaw of climate models, but just the climate models’ limitation.
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May 30, 2007 at 8:10 am
· Filed under 2020, 2030, 2050+, CO2 reduction
In the last few days there have been some announcements regarding CO2 reduction (at least promises).
Japan: The Japanese Prime Minister calls for a 50 % cut in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, Sweden targets a 30 % reduction in greenhouse gases by 2030 and India says it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by more than 25% by 2020.
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May 29, 2007 at 8:52 am
· Filed under Clean Tech, Oil-Gas-Coal
Maybe there is a better solution for “clean coal”. And look, charcoal may be the next “green coal” solution – not for barbequing but for sequestration.
Treehugger: Good news for people who like “clean coal”: a team of scientists from the Department of Colloid Chemistry at the Max Planck Institute of Colloids and Interfaces has discovered a novel “low-tech” way of using biomass to clean up carbon dioxide emissions.They suggest using a cost-efficient process known as hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) to turn fast-growing energy crops into a form of “bio-coal” that would be stored into “carbon landfills” that could act as effective carbon sinks.
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May 29, 2007 at 8:37 am
· Filed under Oil-Gas-Coal
There is an interesting paper available for download from P.A. Kharecha and J.E. Hansen of NASA GISS and Columbia Univ. Earth Institute on the effects of the “peak oil” on the atmospheric CO2 and climate. A good summary of the paper with many charts and scenarios can bei found in The Oil Drum.
P.A. Kharecha / J.E. Hansen: We suggest that, if estimates of oil and gas reserves by the Energy Information Administration are realistic, it is feasible to keep atmospheric CO2 from exceeding approximately 450 ppm, provided that future exploitation of the huge reservoirs of coal and unconventional fossil fuels incorporates carbon capture and sequestration.
Existing coal-fired power plants, without sequestration, must be phased out before mid-century to achieve this limit on atmospheric CO2. We also suggest that it is important to “stretch” oil reserves via energy efficiency, thus avoiding the need to extract liquid fuels from coal or unconventional fossil fuels. We argue that a rising price on carbon emissions is probably needed to keep CO2 beneath the 450 ppm ceiling.
>> Implications of “peak oil” for atmospheric CO2 and climate (PDF)
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May 28, 2007 at 8:27 am
· Filed under 2030, Nuclear Power
We all know, China is a power hungry country. And: China doesn´t have many oil resources. That´s the reason there are Chinese oil expedition everywhere, competing with American oil companies. So, how to satisfy the Chinese hunger for power? One plan: Increase nuclear power resources – not just a few more power plants but by the factor 20!
The National Development and Reform Commission, which administers China’s energy policy, aims to increase nuclear power generation to between 120 million and 160 million kilowatts, the official said during a speech at a strategic energy forum held in Beijing, which was sponsored by the Chinese Construction Ministry.
Yomiuri , Japan: At present, China has 10 nuclear reactors, which are capable of generating 8 million kilowatts. China has previously announced that it wanted to up nuclear power output to 40 million kilowatts by the end of 2020.
To attain its goal under the new plan, China would need to build in excess of 100 nuclear reactors, each capable of generating 1 million kilowatts, over 20 years. If the plan is realized, China would become the world’s largest generator of nuclear power, surpassing Japan, France and the United States.
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May 26, 2007 at 7:20 am
· Filed under Climate Change, Studies
The new study of the IPCC predicts that rising global temperatures may exert a profound impact on the spread of malaria in Africa. More information on the study in Science Daily.
treehugger: In its most recent report released in April, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) cautioned that rising temperatures would likely result in “the altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors” and other “mixed effects, such as the decrease or increase of the range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa.”
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May 25, 2007 at 9:48 am
· Filed under Oil-Gas-Coal
There are many discussions about the peak oil point. But one thing is going to happen: We´re running out of oil, eventually — and it´s going to be more expensive to get oil from the ground. The Valuesystem blog shows some interesting updated graphs and, of course, speculations.
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May 24, 2007 at 9:43 am
· Filed under 2030, Oil-Gas-Coal
The Energy Information Adminsitration (EIA) has published a new “Energy Outlook 2007“. There are several reference cases which do not include any specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions. However, this paper is an interesting read, especially the facts and estimates on the energy sector and the different fossil fuels.
Green Car Congress:In the IEO2007 reference case, which does not include specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 26.9 billion metric tons in 2004 to 33.9 billion metric tons in 2015 and 42.9 billion metric tons in 2030. From 2003 to 2004, carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries grew by almost 10%, while emissions in the OECD countries grew by less than 2%.
The result of the large increase in non-OECD emissions was that 2004 marked the first time that emissions from the non-OECD exceeded those from the OECD countries. Further, because of the expectation that non-OECD countries will rely on fossil fuels to supply much of their future energy demand growth, carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries in 2030 are projected to exceed those from the OECD by 57%.
Global energy demand grows despite the relatively high world oil and natural gas prices in the reference case. However, rising oil prices dampen growth in demand for petroleum and other liquids fuels after 2015 and, as a result, reducing their share of overall energy use from 38% in 2004 to a projected 34% in 2030.
>> Energy Outlook 2007 – Full report (PDF)
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May 23, 2007 at 5:06 am
· Filed under Climate Change
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May 22, 2007 at 5:08 pm
· Filed under Carbon Trading
Australia was one of the few countries which did not sign the Kyoto protocol. Now there are more and more carbon trading news emerging and Australia feels a little left behind; Australia was developing a regional carbon trading scheme and maybe they were just too foolish to think they could play this “carbon trading game” with the US Americans and Chinese…well, looks like nobody wants to play with the Aussies and so they´ve dropped their plans – for now, maybe till the General elections, who knows.
treehugger: Australia was developing a regional carbon trading scheme, which would have included China and the US. It was to present it at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum leaders’ summit in Sydney in September.
However, it now seems as though the plan has been dropped. Australian Foreign Minister, Alexander Downer, said an agreement between all the nations was unlikely. “You need to understand that in terms of an emissions trading scheme, both China — particularly China — and the United States — and I think …. there would be some smaller countries in the region which might share this view — have been opposed to establishing an emissions trading scheme.”
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May 22, 2007 at 7:31 am
· Filed under 2050+, Solar
There is an interesting post on the Entropy Production blog. The author tries to project the future of solar power by extrapolating from historical trends. The article shows many graphs and is in general a good read. His argument: If historical trends continue, solar power will dominate. (via Grist)
Entropy Production: Many people will look at the graphs in disbelief that the easy path photovoltaic power has been travelling can continue. All I can really say in reply is, those are the historical numbers. The learning rate is exceptionally stable. The growth rate has been, if anything, accelerating in the face of a industry silicon shortage. Thin-film technologies seem well positioned to cause the price to continue to fail into the near future. Solar power doesn’t have very far to fall in many European nations before it’s cheaper than residential rates.
As residential solar becomes the cheapest power available that will continue to push demand upward and fuel growth. There’s nothing obvious to me that says ‘Stop’ in solar’s future and it’s a fact of exponential growth that the early years matter the most. Even if the growth rate drops 1 % a year over the next 25-years the eventually outcome seems predetermined, it’s just a question of the timing.
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May 21, 2007 at 6:35 am
· Filed under Insurance
Scientists from German University of Lüneburg explain how biodiversity provides insurance against the uncertain provision of ecosystem services. In fact, this study shows that biodiversity and financial insurance are substitutes.
Stefan Baumgärtner, Uni Lueneburg: I conclude that biodiversity acts as a form of natural insurance for risk-averse ecosystem managers against the over- or under-provision with ecosystem services. Therefore, biodiversity has an insurance value, which is a value component in addition to the usual value arguments, such as direct or indirect use or non-use values. In this respect, biodiversity and financial insurance are substitutes. Hence, the availability, and exact institutional design, of financial insurance influence the level of biodiversity protection.
>> The insurance value of biodiversity in the provision of ecosystem services (PDF)
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May 20, 2007 at 12:18 pm
· Filed under Climate Change, Nanotech, Studies
A recent study by the Department for Enironment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) in the UK explores several ways in which nanotechnologies could cut the use of non-renewable energy sources and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. More information on DEFRAs nanotech research here.
egovmonitor.com: Under this study, five nanotechnological applications were subject to detailed investigation: fuel additives, photovoltaics (solar cells), the hydrogen economy, electricity storage and insulation. In these areas nanotechnology could contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by up to 2 % in the near term and up to 20 % by 2050 with similar reductions in air pollution being realised.
>> Environmentally Beneficial Nanotechnologies: Barriers and Opportunities (PDF)
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May 20, 2007 at 5:50 am
· Filed under 2050+, Climate Change
NewScientist tackles the climate change myths and explains 26 statements on climate change. I like their approach in giving different angles and also publishing a guide on assessing the evidence.
NewScientist: Yes, there are still big uncertainties in some predictions, but these swing both ways. For example, the response of clouds could slow the warming or speed it up.
With so much at stake, it is right that climate science is subjected to the most intense scrutiny. What does not help is for the real issues to be muddied by discredited arguments or wild theories.
So for those who are not sure what to believe, here is our round-up of the 26 most common climate myths and misconceptions.
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May 19, 2007 at 10:40 am
· Filed under 2050+, Climate Change, Studies
Interesting article in the Guardian on the future of European cities in 2071. Also have a look at the Climate Change Map of 2071 which is pretty much in the red.
Guardian: Warmer temperatures and less rainfall mean all the cities drift several hundred miles to the south, with Oslo relocated to Teruel in north-eastern Spain, and Berlin and Barcelona going to north Africa. The closest present match for Rome is the Cypriot capital, Nicosia.
..
Dr Hallegatte worked with colleagues Minh Ha-Duong and Sebastian Kopf, at the University of Bremen, to predict the scenarios for 2071-2100 for 12 European capitals, using two different climate models and assuming that carbon emissions continue to rise. They used predictions of two key weather variables – aridity and temperature – and compared them with conditions recorded at thousands of places across Europe and north Africa from 1961-1990.
When they got a match, they looked for the nearest large town or city, which they describe as “climate analogues” of the 12 capitals. They presented the results at last month’s meeting of the European Geosciences Union in Vienna.
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May 19, 2007 at 6:18 am
· Filed under 2010, Solar, Studies
A new study by German Photon Consulting projects the future costs of solar by decoupling the solar prices from underlying costs. Unfortunatly, the report costs 1.100 Euros.
Photon Consulting: Today, the “true cost” of solar power is under 25¢ per kWh in most locations and is likely to reach 10¢ to 15¢ per kWh by 2010. This includes all costs of manufacturing and installing solar power systems from pre-silicon (i.e. TCS) to connected-installations without incentives or tax benefits.
Already, solar is at a cost level that makes it competitive with residential grid prices in the OECD’s highest-priced markets. It is estimated that the cost of solar power is below the price of residential grid electricity for 5 to 10 percent of OECD consumption (200 to 400 TWh). This equates to 150 to 300 GW of solar power, compared to only 2.7 GW of solar cell/module production in 2006.
Over the next three years, it is expected that the typical fully-loaded cost of solar power will decrease at least 30 percent from $3.60 per W in 2006 to $2.50 per W. In consequence, by 2010, the cost of solar will be below the price of grid electricity for at least 50 percent of OECD residential demand, equivalent to around 1,500 GW of solar power. This is much larger than the 15 GW of cell/module production PHOTON Consulting anticipates for 2010.
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May 19, 2007 at 5:45 am
· Filed under Carbon Trading, Studies
The World Bank just published a new report on the trends of carbon trading.
The World Bank -Carbon Finance Unit: he carbon market grew in value to an estimated US$30 billion in 2006 (€23 billion), three times greater than the previous year. The market was dominated by the sale and re-sale of European Union Allowances (EUAs) at a value of nearly $25 billion under the EU ETS (€19 billion). Project-based activities primarily through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) grew sharply to a value of about US$5 billion in 2006 (€3.8 billion). The voluntary market for reductions by corporations and individuals also grew strongly to an estimated US$100 million in 2006 (€80 million). Both, the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) and the New South Wales Market (NSW) saw record volumes and values traded in 2006.
>> State and trends of the carbon markets 2007 (PDF)
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May 18, 2007 at 10:27 am
· Filed under CO2 neutral
Possible? Who´s going to be the first CO2 neutral airline? Virgin airlines, as reported? Look at Costa Rica´s Nature Air: They are already flying the “eco skies”.
Outside: “We are the world’s first and only zero-emissions airline,” says Nature Air spokes-man Alexi Huntley, who, along with his father, brother, and a group of investors, has turned a fleet of six DeHavilland Twin Otter planes and two twin-engine Britten Norman Islanders into a Central American shuttle system. The small airline makes 74 daily flights to 17 adventure travel destinations in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Panama.So how does an airplane dial its CO2 output back to zero? Nature Air first uses its yearly fuel consumption to calculate emissions—some 4,650 tons in 2004. Then, working with the Costa Rican government, it assigns that number a monetary value. Last December, when the company started the project, Nature Air offset its 2004 emissions with a $12,322 investment in reforestation and habitat-protection projects on the Osa Peninsula, one of Central America’s most biologically diverse rainforests.
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May 17, 2007 at 8:52 am
· Filed under 2020, Clean Tech, Studies
Siemens has been publishing their future technology magazine “Pictures of the Future” for 6 years. The recent issues reports also on “Technology for the environment”. Interesting articles in their publication are “Scenario 2020″ and their sections “Trends” and “Facts and Forecasts”. Detailed information, good read.
Siemens: Which technologies will shape our lives in ten to twenty years? Pictures of the Future answers this by painting detailed scenarios of tomorrow’s world – scenarios supported by reports on cutting edge research at Siemens.
>> Siemens: Pictures of the Future (PDF)
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