In the last few days there have been some announcements regarding CO2 reduction (at least promises).
Japan: The Japanese Prime Minister calls for a 50 % cut in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, Sweden targets a 30 % reduction in greenhouse gases by 2030 and India says it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by more than 25% by 2020.
There is an interesting post on the Entropy Production blog. The author tries to project the future of solar power by extrapolating from historical trends. The article shows many graphs and is in general a good read. His argument: If historical trends continue, solar power will dominate. (via Grist)
Entropy Production: Many people will look at the graphs in disbelief that the easy path photovoltaic power has been travelling can continue. All I can really say in reply is, those are the historical numbers. The learning rate is exceptionally stable. The growth rate has been, if anything, accelerating in the face of a industry silicon shortage. Thin-film technologies seem well positioned to cause the price to continue to fail into the near future. Solar power doesn’t have very far to fall in many European nations before it’s cheaper than residential rates.
As residential solar becomes the cheapest power available that will continue to push demand upward and fuel growth. There’s nothing obvious to me that says ‘Stop’ in solar’s future and it’s a fact of exponential growth that the early years matter the most. Even if the growth rate drops 1 % a year over the next 25-years the eventually outcome seems predetermined, it’s just a question of the timing.
NewScientist tackles the climate change myths and explains 26 statements on climate change. I like their approach in giving different angles and also publishing a guide on assessing the evidence.
NewScientist: Yes, there are still big uncertainties in some predictions, but these swing both ways. For example, the response of clouds could slow the warming or speed it up.
With so much at stake, it is right that climate science is subjected to the most intense scrutiny. What does not help is for the real issues to be muddied by discredited arguments or wild theories.
So for those who are not sure what to believe, here is our round-up of the 26 most common climate myths and misconceptions.
Interesting article in the Guardian on the future of European cities in 2071. Also have a look at the Climate Change Map of 2071 which is pretty much in the red.
Guardian: Warmer temperatures and less rainfall mean all the cities drift several hundred miles to the south, with Oslo relocated to Teruel in north-eastern Spain, and Berlin and Barcelona going to north Africa. The closest present match for Rome is the Cypriot capital, Nicosia.
..Dr Hallegatte worked with colleagues Minh Ha-Duong and Sebastian Kopf, at the University of Bremen, to predict the scenarios for 2071-2100 for 12 European capitals, using two different climate models and assuming that carbon emissions continue to rise. They used predictions of two key weather variables – aridity and temperature – and compared them with conditions recorded at thousands of places across Europe and north Africa from 1961-1990.
When they got a match, they looked for the nearest large town or city, which they describe as “climate analogues” of the 12 capitals. They presented the results at last month’s meeting of the European Geosciences Union in Vienna.
The new “Cimate Solutions” study by the WWF deals with a really important question: Can a concerted shift to the sustainable energy resources and technologies that are available today meet the more than doubling of global energy demand projected by 2050, while avoiding dangerous climatic change of more than two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels? The answer: It´s possible – the WWF introduces six scenarios. But the WWF study also notes a certain urgency. The switch needs to be done now. Otherwise it may be too late.
A new study by Quaternary scientists at Lund University in Sweden predicts that Europe may face a slightly cooler future but the scientists are not concerned about a complete shut-down of the Gulf Stream as envisioned in the apocalyptic movie “The day after tomorrow”.
Scientist Svante Björk: “We don’t know with certainty what will happen. Some attempts at measuring ocean currents suggest a recent weakening of the Gulf Stream, and the transport of heat to the North Atlantic region may well decrease in the future as a result of increased precipitation. Such a scenario might lead to less warming in Europe than predicted by the IPCC, but we will probably not face an arctic climate.”
