German perspective: Oil consumption will decrease 12 percent by 2020 — now compare!
I found this forecast below –the German blurb — from “Esso (ExxonMobil) Energy Forecast Germany 2001“(just in German..), issued in late September. In 2020 oil will be still number one (36% of total energy consumption) but natural gas right behind (34%).
To bring that into the big (US) picture, I searched for my old calculator and checked out the US situation. My first problem was to compare different units. But I did it! This is what I found out (my US data comes from the “Energy Blueprint on page 4″ by the Union of Concerned Scientists. I am quite sure they did their homework!):
Germany (total oil consumption):
2001: 127 mio. tons
2020: 121 mio. tons (Esso forecast)
US (total oil consumption: 1 quadrillion BTU x 25.2 = mio. tons):
2000: 960.12 mio tons (38.1 Quadrillion BTU*)
2010 (business-as-usual): 1.12 mio tons (44.4)
2010 (blueprint suggested): 1.09 mio tons (43.4)
2020 (business-as-usual): 1.28 mio tons (50.6)
2020 (blueprint suggested): 1.22 mio tons (48.3)
So much about “independence from oil”. basically, US oil consumption is going to rise nevertheless. Regarding the energy blueprint, renewable energies will generate at best 10.6 quadrillions btu (267.12 mio tons) by 2020 — now, that is 2.4 times more than the forecasted total German oil consumption in 2020. That’s remarkable!
ExxonMobil Central Europe Holding GmbH Primärenergieverbrauch
Bis zum Jahr 2020 nimmt der Mineralölverbrauch in Deutschland um 12 Prozent von 127 auf 112 Millionen Tonnen ab. Öl bleibt aber auch dann noch der Energieträger Nummer 1 mit einem Anteil von 36 Prozent am Primärenergieverbrauch. Im gleichen Zeitraum steigt der Verbrauch von Erdgas um 34 Prozent.