World Energy Outlook 2002 Sees Abundant Energy Till 2030, The Reference Scenario projects continuing rapid growth in energy demand from now till 2030, at a rate of 1.7% annually. By 2030, the world will be consuming two-thirds more energy than today. And developing countries will replace the industrialised world as the largest group of energy consumers.
Fossil fuels will remain the dominant sources of energy, filling more than 90% of the coming increase in demand. Oil demand will increase even faster than in the past thirty years. Natural gas will be the fastest-growing fuel, doubling in volume in the 30-year projection period. Coal will grow more slowly, and its share in world energy supply will decline. Under present policies, nuclear power will decline as old plants are retired and few new ones are built. Renewable energy will increasingly contribute to power generation. Use of wind power and biomass will expand very quickly, but from an extremely small base. The two energy sectors that will grow most over the next thirty years are electricity and transport, especially in the developing world, where rising incomes will swell the demand for electricity services and mobility.
Energy trade is set to expand very rapidly, as the major oil and gas consuming nations increase their imports. Production of oil and gas will be increasingly concentrated in a few states – OPEC members, especially in the Middle East, and Russia