The Energy Information Adminsitration (EIA) has published a new “Energy Outlook 2007“. There are several reference cases which do not include any specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions. However, this paper is an interesting read, especially the facts and estimates on the energy sector and the different fossil fuels.
Green Car Congress:In the IEO2007 reference case, which does not include specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 26.9 billion metric tons in 2004 to 33.9 billion metric tons in 2015 and 42.9 billion metric tons in 2030. From 2003 to 2004, carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries grew by almost 10%, while emissions in the OECD countries grew by less than 2%.
The result of the large increase in non-OECD emissions was that 2004 marked the first time that emissions from the non-OECD exceeded those from the OECD countries. Further, because of the expectation that non-OECD countries will rely on fossil fuels to supply much of their future energy demand growth, carbon dioxide emissions from the non-OECD countries in 2030 are projected to exceed those from the OECD by 57%.
Global energy demand grows despite the relatively high world oil and natural gas prices in the reference case. However, rising oil prices dampen growth in demand for petroleum and other liquids fuels after 2015 and, as a result, reducing their share of overall energy use from 38% in 2004 to a projected 34% in 2030.