There is a really insightful thread in The Oil Drum on predictions on the impact of the cyclone Gonu. The thread has been updated several times. The Oil Drum and Chuck Watson of KAC/UCF are forecasting, based on their damage models, that the Qalhat (Sur) LNG terminal will be out for 20-30 days and the Mina al Fahal oil terminal will be down for 10-20 days–all of this assuming they are built to US standards. Read the entire thread for more information.
The Oil Drum: Why might Cyclone Gonu matter? Well, that answer begins with the fact that the world production of petroleum plateauing around 85 mbbl/day, so any slight blip in supply or exporting could be quite noticeable on the world markets–as a sizeable portion of the world’s petroleum exports go through the Gulf of Oman.
Particularly, Oman also matters in this because it produces 743,000 bbl/day; Oman is also a net exporter, non-OPEC, whose production peaked earlier in the decade.
Of course, this storm also has the potential to affect petroleum exports from Iran and the UAE for that matter–mainly because of shipping disruptions in the Straits of Hormuz, but there could also be some real effects on infrastructure and assets depending on storm surge, track and landfall. There are also refining and other production assets in Southern Iran that could be affected depending on the strength of Gonu.